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Robert Beanland of Putnam County, New York, spent the last seven years of his 20-year career at a publishing company waiting for the ax to fall. With advances in software technology, the computers in Beanland's office seemed to be getting smarter and faster.Over time, the computers began to take over the work that he and his fellow statistical analysts did -- processing information, crunching the numbers, composing spreadsheets. And when the computers had a problem -- they'd be down for at most an hour -- they never called in sick. At first, Beanland's department had six employees, then five, four, then two. He and the other survivor finally got pink slips about two years ago. Beanland, 40, now cares for his eight-month-old son while his wife works full time. "I stay home because we don't want to put our son in day care," he says. "But I know if I had to find a job in my field right now, it would be hard."
Beanland isn't alone. He's a victim of a trend you might call "compumation." Compumation is like automation, but instead of industrial machinery that's taking away your job, it's digital technology. Between 1995 and 2002, the United States lost 11 percent of its manufacturing jobs; now high-speed computer technology is having a similar impact on the service sector.
According to a report in USA Today, it takes only nine workers to produce what ten did in March 2001. Most of the 100 largest companies have raised productivity largely by eliminating jobs. More and more, technology is replacing white-collar office workers like clerks and secretaries as well as a slew of well-paying blue-collar jobs. The Home Depot, for example, has moved many cashiers to the sales floor thanks to self-checkout counters, which it has in nearly half of its U.S. stores.
Using computers instead of people is a trend that's here to stay. Why use a travel agent when you can book the cheapest flights online? Why hire an accountant to file your taxes when software practically does it for you? Why have tollbooth collectors when electronic passes are cheaper and faster? Why employ customer-service representatives or telephone operators when a digitized phone system does the trick?
One reason for this trend is productivity gains. When productivity rises, the economy picks up. In the past, this has usually meant more jobs -- not fewer -- and higher wages. But not everyone believes this will continue. A report in BusinessWeek noted that a one- percentage-point increase in annual productivity growth costs as many as 1.3 million jobs. Some fear that as fast as new jobs are created, new technology will be invented to replace them.
If a job requires following a routine set of rules, compumation could deliver a pink slip: At greatest risk are jobs that are easy to mimic -- or even refashion -- with computer technology, say MIT economist Frank Levy and Harvard economist Richard J. Murnane, co-authors of The New Division of Labor: How computers are creating the next job market.
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