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With a single global workforce, many workers fear that U.S. companies will outsource jobs to countries with cheaper labor. And indeed that has happened in many industries, with sometimes devastating results. But cheaper doesn't always mean better -- and by no means does cheaper trump smarter. While real wages continue to drop for routine jobs that can be mechanized or don't require sophisticated training, the value of intellectual capital -- meaning brainpower -- keeps going up.On a national scale, that sort of globalization and technological change keeps our economy competitive and makes smart companies more efficient. "But it also means that as employees, we must continually learn and adapt," warns Citigroup's Thomson. "Education and training are paramount. They're the only way to stay ahead of the game."
New York Times columnist Tom Friedman makes the same case in The World Is Flat, his recent bestseller about the globalization of work and culture. He contends that technological advances have created a flat world in which everyone competes for the same jobs. To distinguish yourself, says Friedman, it's critical to have a specialty that allows you to "look around and say, ' This can't just be done from anywhere. This has to be done from here, by me.'
"You have to think of yourself competing with other individuals all over the world, and you'd better be preparing yourself or your kid for that kind of competition. That's why I tell my girls, ' Girls, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, "Tom, finish your dinner. People in China and India are starving." ' And what I say is, 'Girls, finish your homework. People in China and India are starving for your jobs.' And in a flat world, they can have them."
In the knowledge-based workplace Friedman describes, winners will be people with agility, skills and training. The demands will stretch across the economy from industries that require a high level of education -- biotech, IT, energy, defense, security. But they'll also touch the skilled trades: health care and construction workers, electricians, plumbers and car mechanics.
Automotive services has become a particularly hot career. "Virtually everything in your car is controlled by a computer -- antilock brakes, power train, fuel injection systems, emission controls. Your average auto technician goes through a training process that is very much like an engineering course," says Tony Molla, a vice president of the National Institute for Automotive Service Excellence. A top skilled mechanic can make up to $100,000 a year.
That still astonishes Michele Winn, 34. Bored with college classes, Winn switched to trade school, where her 14 months of courses included advanced automotive electronics and engine performance. That was 11 years ago. Now she's manager for Linder Technical Services in Indianapolis. "I'm sitting in a shop where you can eat off the floor. We specialize in fuel injection and electronics diagnostics, and we are picky about the cars we work on."
She continues to take classes, and sees the payoff in every paycheck. "I'll make $75,000 to $80,000 this year. I was just looking at my pay stub and I said, ' Holy cow, how is this happening?' "
Skilled workers are at such a premium that employers have begun offering training as a perk to ensure their loyalty. United Technologies Employee Scholar Program takes this concept to the limit. It pays for any employee to go to college, all expenses in advance. Scholars get three hours off a week for study -- and $10,000 in company stock after graduation day. More than 16,000 UT employees have taken part. "To me, cheap work should go offshore and the good skilled work should stay in America," says George David, United Technologies chairman and CEO.
Which is exactly what's happening in the real world. "You will see a continued diminishing of the jobs that everyone and anyone can do," says Steve Pogorzelski, president of Monster.com, the online job-search company. "We will see a smaller decline than in the past, but jobs in manufacturing will go away because you can have the same people do it elsewhere for lower costs. You can be trained in a very short period of time for any of those jobs."
More than ever, performance will dictate success. And companies are assessing and tracking employees' performance in a way that was unimaginable five years ago. "Everyone is being graded, and that grade is tied to promotion and pay," says Challenger. Even the definition of "performance" is changing. Once we were graded on how many widgets we made; today it's more about the good ideas we generate and the problems we solve.
The brains-driven workplace will be a better deal for everyone, Challenger says. "While it is not the death knell, it will begin to push out the inequities in compensation for women and minorities. You won't be able to get ahead on politics alone in the future."
In short, while the future of work will be different, there's every reason to be optimistic. No matter what your age or background, if you've got the goods, the opportunities are out there waiting
- The U.S. Department of Labor tracks all sorts of job trends, including the hot jobs of the future.
- Information on America's community colleges -- there's almost certainly one near you.
- Thinking about your own reinvention? For a good primer read Second Acts: Creating the Life You Really Want, Building the Career You Truly Desire, by Stephen Pollan and Mark Levine.
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