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To get a glimpse of the future of work, all you have to do is look back ten years. The Internet was still new; e-mail had yet to be accepted as a widespread form of communication. "Outsourcing" wasn't a word you heard nearly every day, and no one gave a second thought to competing for jobs with workers in India or China. Diversity in the workplace was a relatively new concept, and practices like flextime or job cycling were available only to a lucky few.If so much could change so quickly, imagine the transformations coming during the next five or ten years. We're on the verge of a breakthrough in the whole idea of work, one that will give employees added flexibility and control. Flexibility works two ways though: Along with more freedom, each of us will need to become careful managers of our careers -- or risk getting left behind.
We've identified five big trends for the coming years. They touch on nearly every aspect of our work and our lives -- demographics, technology, globalization, training and productivity. How each company and worker responds to these trends will determine who prospers and who falls behind -- and their cumulative effect will reshape work as we know it.
The first trend is all about numbers. There were 76 million people born between 1946 and 1964, and in just three years the oldest of those boomers turn 62, the earliest age of eligibility for retired workers' benefits under Social Security. Many employers worry they'll see a huge and experienced workforce walk out the door.
More troubling, in the next generation there simply aren't enough skilled employees. "The workforce will be smaller," says Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao. "Companies are getting to the point where they realize we have a shortage of workers and, to be competitive, a company has to respond."
That means more people can now write their own job tickets, a trend that's likely to increase. One of the top goals most people have is building flexibility into their jobs, so they can work where and when they choose. "In 2001, there were 28.7 million Americans, or 29 percent of full-time workers, who maintained flexible schedules," says John Challenger, president of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. "That's a 96 percent increase since the last reading in 1991." JetBlue may be the ultimate example: All the airline's 1,000 or so reservation agents work from computers in their homes.
When workers do finally decide to retire, more companies are offering not just a handshake and a so-long party but also a part-time job. Barbara Sailer, 62, retired from Procter & Gamble in 2001 and now works for her former employer through YourEncore, a firm that matches retired science professionals and engineers with companies that need project workers. Sailer is part of a demographic sub-trend: Surveys indicate that more than half of all boomers intend to work at least part-time after they leave their core careers.
For some, the reason comes down to cash, pure and simple. "There is a tremendous increase in [monthly] Social Security benefits working until you are 70," says Sara Rix, senior policy advisor at AARP. A typical employee retiring at 62 would get Social Security benefits of around $8,500 a year; if she works until 70, she'll get $16,000.
For many boomers, "retirement" offers not an endless vacation but a chance to reinvent themselves. A survey by Merrill Lynch found that 56 percent of boomers plan to launch a new line of work after a retirement "turning point" in their early 60s. "People don't want to sit on the beach just because they have hit 70," says Jack Welch, former chairman and CEO of General Electric, and co-author of the recently published Winning. "They want action. They are too vibrant; 70 is the new 55." Welch should know: After 20 years running GE, the 69-year-old now runs his own schedule, consulting, speaking and writing bestsellers -- two so far.
If demand is driving flexible schedules, technology is what enables the transformation. "We work in a 24/7 world," says Challenger. "As we get more global, we will be less confined to the same office and the same worker pool. Workers will be working at all hours, from all over the world."
Aerospace and engineering giant Honeywell typifies the way technology lets companies make the most of a nonstop workday. At the end of their shifts, design and engineering teams in the United States now routinely hand off work to counterparts in Asia, who are just getting to the office.
"To remain competitive as a company, you have to find and use the best, most efficient people in the world, no matter where they are," says Todd Thomson, chairman and CEO of Citigroup Global Wealth Management. "If the best design people are in Italy, you put your design center in Italy. If manufacturing is better in China, you put your factory in China."
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