
One more day to go in the presidential derby. An historic election, to be sure, with some high moments, and too many low ones. We’ve had trivial debates over the flag pins (or lack thereof) on Barack Obama’s lapel, and snarky comments about the source of Sarah Palin’s clothes. We've listened to more discussion, it seems, about the candidates’ résumés than on how they would fix the economy—or bring the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a satisfactory result. Liberals complain about Republicans’ heavy-handed campaign tactics. The conservative rebuttal is that the media elites have been arrayed against them in an uncommonly partisan way. Neither complaint is wrong. As a journalist, the second criticism bothers me more, but on Tuesday we will count the votes regardless. Obama is leading in all the national polls and in most of the swing states (here's the latest from Real Clear Politics), while there is some evidence suggesting late, but minor, movement in John McCain’s direction. Here are four possible outcomes, with Loose Cannon adding whimsical footnotes to the first two:
Scenario 1: The nation experiences another relatively close election, its fifth in a row if you factor out the muddying presence of Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996. In the end, Barack Obama wins a clear-cut victory. The Electoral College follows the popular vote, which most likely would mean that Obama wins in the neighborhood of 52-46, with Bob Barr and Ralph Nader picking up 2 percent between them, and with at least 350 Electoral College votes going to the Democratic ticket. In a gracious concession speech, McCain does not allege that media bias defeated him, and extends a hand of friendship to Obama. During the transition, President-elect Obama reciprocates by offering McCain a cabinet position. On Inauguration Day, Sarah Palin announces her 2012 presidential bid.
Scenario 2: McCain closes fast and nips Obama at the wire, say 49.5 to 48.5 percent, eking out narrow victories in
Scenario 3: Obama, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980, attracts the passionate support of all those in his own party, nails down the late-deciding swing voters, and proves a magnet to first-time voters, many of them young Americans going to the polls for the first time. In addition, Obama attracts record numbers of African American votes, and minority support across the spectrum. The election returns offer further proof of the accelerated erosion of support for the Republican Party in New England and the Eastern seaboard, as well as among onetime "Reagan Democrats" in the
Scenario 4: Obama wins the popular vote handily, but loses narrowly in the Electoral College. This dichotomy has happened before, as recently as 2000, but this result would make that year's
Suppose Obama were to carry
The Electoral College may have outlived its usefulness, but—whatever your political leanings—such a result would simply not be worth the cost of getting rid of it. So, lift a glass with me, and join me in a toast: Here’s hoping for a clean result tomorrow, one way or the other.
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