More on Young Voters

My  previous post about why I think young voters—who gravitate disproportionately toward Barack Obama—are being under-counted by pollsters has generated some discussion. Much of it was on other blogs, or in the form of emails directly to me, as I haven’t yet trained enough of our community of civil, but interested, citizens to post their comments. I appreciate the feedback, however. It seems that some of our friends gently challenged my conclusions, while others agreed with it. So let’s briefly explore what’s out there.

Denver-based political consultant Rick Ridder, a Democrat (and longtime personal friend), says that his in-house research team recently began trying to determine the percentage of voters aged 18-35 who will vote in 2008. That was a little outside my own range of 18 to 29 year olds, and considerably broader than Harvard’s Institute of Politics cohort of 18 to 25 year olds, but I believe it is still relevant. So does Rick.

“We think (turnout) will be up significantly,” Rick told me. “And it will help Obama.” But Rick, who is both smart and prudent, added, as a caveat: “Just remember when we once counted on the new 18 year old voters (1972) to bring Democratic victories. Turned out they voted just like everyone else—for Nixon.”

This is a point I’ve made before, so yes, it's important to keep our heads. Another cautionary note was sounded by Peter D. Feaver, a Duke political science professor who did a stint in White House during the current administration. Peter’s political persuasion is the opposite of Rick Ridder’s. (What they have in common is that both are intellectually honest, fair-minded, and quite decent fellows.) In any event, Professor Feaver contacted me to say that although his gut feeling is the same as mine about pollsters not counting enough young people—and not counting the right kind of young people (i.e. those with cell phones)—this is a hard thing to prove with actual data. Peter sent me links to two surveys, one by Pew and the other by Gallup. The first didn’t find any difference between voting preferences of millennials with cell phones and those with land lines. The second struggled to find supporting data for the notion that Obama is about to generate a groundswell of young voters.

The first one of these polls is here, the second, along with an analysis by the always-insightful Mark Blumenthal, is there. If you are interested in this subject, I urge you to click on those links, even if my own conclusion differs. One savvy political writer who does agree with me: Ken Bazinet of the New York Daily News. Here’s his shout-out to Loose Cannon. I appreciate it, but also respect my skeptics. That's how we roll on this blog.