The Contenders 2008: John Edwards (page 3 of 3)

Can Edwards Rally Liberal Activists?

In a campaign year where Democrats can make history by nominating the first woman or African American for President, Edwards's best shot is in becoming the darling of liberal activists. Elizabeth Edwards, herself an accomplished lawyer, is doing her part by appealing to female voters who might be tempted to go with Hillary Clinton: "This is too important an election to just make a statement, to vote for a woman as a symbol." Her husband, she says, "values a woman's worth. It says a lot that John is married to me. No one thinks of me as his trophy wife."

The open question is whether Edwards can rally the activists without alienating the moderate voters he'd need later. That's a key hurdle for every Democrat, according to Bruce Reed, president of the Democratic Leadership Council. "We have to compete for the vital center," he says, "so what we say needs to make sense to the broad public, not just to the narrow ranks of party regulars."

Edwards will have no such worries if he doesn't first capture the nomination. So what's the scenario that could hand him the prize? Here's the consensus of political analysts:

• He has to have a good showing in the four kickoff contests in late January -- the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. Don't be surprised if it happens. Edwards is polling well in all these states and has a good chance of finishing first in Iowa and first or second in South Carolina (a primary he won four years ago). Win two of the four and he'd go into the all-important February primaries with a real head of steam.



• He has to lock up key labor endorsements. Edwards has aggressively courted the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the Service Employees International Union, and he has a great shot at corralling these very influential unions.



• He must exploit his communication skills, honed over many years as a trial lawyer appealing to juries. Bill Clinton once said that Edwards could "talk an owl out of a tree." He's also more adept at handling tough, unexpected questions than Hillary Clinton, says Bill Kristol, a Republican consultant and editor of The Weekly Standard. "Political talent, actual skills as a candidate, matters a lot."

In the end, it could come down to the pure serendipity of a long and grueling campaign. The biggest wild card for Edwards is the unknowable progression of his wife's cancer. Worries about whether he can stay in the race might deter some deep-pocketed donors from giving to his campaign.

If Elizabeth's health holds, Edwards's candidacy will stay on track, but he could need one more bit of good fortune. Some favorites inevitably implode (remember Howard Dean?), and even supporters of Clinton and Obama worry about their electability. Should either of those campaigns falter, who will their supporters turn to? "Edwards needs to be everybody's second choice," says Anita Dunn.

So John Edwards forges ahead, convinced that his call for moral leadership encapsulates what the American people want. "We look forward to having a President who is honest and decent, who people respond to in a really positive way," he says.

I'll bet you can guess who he has in mind.

From Reader's Digest - June 2007

 

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