Cuba Without Castro (page 3 of 4)

Individual Survival

Despite this disgruntlement, a popular uprising doesn't seem imminent. One of the clearest signs came last July when Raúl took over for his ailing brother. Of the handful of prominent dissidents in Cuba, only one, Dr. Darsi Ferrer, called for open civil disobedience during the transition. No one heeded his call. "That was the perfect opportunity for the dissidents to act," says a Western diplomat posted in Havana. "Only one did. It's pretty clear to me it won't be an immediate popular uprising."

In an important sense, after so many decades of Castro's rule, the Cuban people's collective will has given way to individual survival. Why stick your neck out only to get it chopped off? Still, there are hopeful signs of opposition. According to El Directorio Democrtico Cubano, a prominent exile group in Miami, there were more than 3,300 acts of defiance against the regime in 2005. Most were vigils and small get-togethers, but there were also public protests and mass petitions demanding change. Interestingly, an increasing number of these acts take place in the provinces far from Havana, suggesting not only that the regime's grip is slipping but also that ideas are spreading.

With the transition from Fidel to Raúl all but solidified, the regime will next need to manage the transfer of power to another, younger leader. If anyone is seen as having the upper hand, it's Carlos Lage Davila, the man behind the economic reforms of the mid-1990s, which Raúl supported but Fidel later all but rescinded. In his mid-50s, Lage is the youngest of the main contenders for power and is probably closest to Raúl. He also has strong ties to Venezuela's president, Hugo Chvez, a strident foe of the United States whom some regard as Castro's truest successor in the region. But his ascension is far from settled. "The best analogy is that there are a bunch of hyenas around Fidel," says Thor Halvorssen, president of the Human Rights Foundation in New York, "and they're going to have a go at each other. And who's going to win, nobody knows."

If Cuba remains socialist, its chief allies will be other leftist regimes in the region: Bolivia, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador and, of course, Venezuela. Other countries likely to enhance their ties with Cuba are Iran, China and Russia -- alliances that could further elevate tensions between these powerful countries and the United States.

Look longer term, however, and all bets are off. According to Caleb McCarry, the State Department's point man on Cuba, ever since Castro's illness last summer, "change, and the expectation of change, is greater than it has ever been in Cuba."

That change could have enormous implications for Americans. Restrictions on trade and travel to Cuba would likely be lifted, with American businesses pouring back into the island nation that's only 90 miles from the Florida coast. It might also mean something that worries our government: a sudden flood of Cuban migrs to our shores, with attendant political and social strains.

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