Iran: Our Next Crisis? (page 4 of 5)

Option 2: Regime Change

Some observers say the United States should push for regime change in Iran by backing dissident elements that might try to topple the clerical leadership. It's a seductive idea, mainly because analysts are convinced that many -- if not most -- Iranians would like to have a more democratic government. Last November, for instance, Tehran University students protested the regime's crackdown on campus activists, braving reprisals. So it's logical to think there's a base of support for deposing the government, if the United States can just get to it.

It's more complicated than that, however. Many Iranians may dislike their government, but they virulently oppose the slightest hint of American interference in their affairs. The United States has a long and sordid history with Iran, punctuated by events like the CIA's overthrow of the popular Iranian prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq in 1953. This was a defining element of the revolution that brought the radical clerics to power. Today, no Iranian dissident group will risk its legitimacy by accepting help from Washington.

Also, while many Iranians want change, they aren't ready to incite a new revolution. They remember too well the summer of 1999, when university students tried to start just such a revolution. Iran had a new president, Mohammad Khatami, who seemed determined to reform (if not replace) the Islamic Republic. So the students took to the streets in protest, and waited. They waited for President Khatami to lead them and for the people of Iran to pour out in support of them. But Khatami backed down. The people of Iran stayed home. And the regime moved in its thugs and beat the students into submission.

Afterward, the Iranians told Western governments that while they wanted a different government, they did not want another revolution to get it. They were sick of revolutions.

So regime change may someday come to Iran, but there is little reason to think the United States can make that happen soon. As Gen. Tommy Franks once famously remarked, "Hope is not a strategy."

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• Iran: Who's Got the Power?
• An overview of the priorities influencing Iran's faction leaders.
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• What Iranians Believe
• Our poll results offer some surprising and unsettling findings.
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• History of U.S. - Iran Relations
• A timeline of the nation's involvement with Iran.
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• How to Win in Iraq
• Two Senators give their plans for victory.
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• Can Three Become One?
• A look at the divided factions of the Middle East.
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• Complete Iran Poll Results
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