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Option 3: Carrots and Sticks
What's left? The diplomatic option -- which, fortunately, is the best option of all.This strategy has one big thing going for it: Iran's economy. Simply put, it's a mess: high inflation and unemployment, low investment, decrepit infrastructure, large gaps between rich and poor, and massive corruption. Iran's economic woes are the No. 1 grievance of the Iranian people, and that anger is our trump card.
To play it, we need a policy of carrots and sticks that can convince Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. This seems to be the path we're now on, but the United States and its big power partners haven't gone nearly far enough. We should say to the Iranians, "If you will give up your nuclear program and your support of terrorism, and do so in a manner that we can inspect and monitor, then we'll lift the U.S. economic sanctions, unfreeze the Shah's assets, integrate Iran into the global economy, sell you properly safeguarded lightwater reactors for nuclear energy, give you access to nuclear technology (without actually providing the facilities or the fissile material), provide you with security guarantees that we would not attack, and begin an arms control process in the Persian Gulf so you can feel more secure."
As for the sticks, Iran should be told that as long as it continues to pursue nuclear weapons, the international community will impose ever harsher economic sanctions. This threat puts the Iranian regime on the horns of a dilemma: Either it has to give up its nuclear program and support for terrorism or, by refusing the West's offer, it has to acknowledge to its people that the regime cares more about nuclear weapons and terrorism than it does about Iran's economy, its energy supply, and its relationship with the rest of the world. That is a decision the Iranian leadership is desperately trying to avoid.
For this option to work, the United States must be willing to offer up the bigger carrots that might clinch a deal, and the Europeans need to be willing to wield the big sticks. The Europeans and Japanese have been doing a fair amount of trading with Iran, and if they were willing to cut those ties, it would be a heavy blow to Iran's economy. The Europeans have been good at regularly threatening to impose serious economic sanctions, but they have yet to put their money where their mouth is.
Meanwhile, the United States is offering to provide airplane parts for Iran's civilian fleet, back Iranian efforts to join the World Trade Organization, and support Europe's sale to Iran of lightwater reactors. That's not the full range of concessions that the Europeans, Russians and Chinese want to see before signing on to heavy sanctions if Iran does the wrong thing.
If America and these other nuclear powers are able to consummate their own strange courtship, they will likely catch the Iranians in a vise, just as they did when they adopted a similar approach with the Libyans a decade ago. And there's every reason to believe that, like the Libyans, the Iranians would come to see it's in their best interests to accept the carrots to get rid of the sticks.
However, if the United States and its partners refuse to take these final steps together, it is very likely that the Iranians will once again slip through the gap between us. And that means, not too far down the road, we will all discover what it's like to live with a nuclear Iran.
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