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THE TIME LINE
1824 Political polling gets its start when newspapers print survey results gauging support for John Quincy Adams (who wins election decided by Congress), Andrew Jackson, and two others.1858 Debating Douglas, Lincoln cites role of "public sentiment" in politics.
1916 The Literary Digest launches first national presidential poll, mailing ballots to subscribers in five states. LD poll correctly predicts winner in every presidential election from 1916 to 1932.
1932 Emil Hurja analyzes public polling data for Franklin Roose_velt; Hurja is first polling expert to work for a presidential campaign. He later uses polls to advise FDR on building political support for New Deal.
1935 After helping his mother-in-law get elected secretary of state for Iowa, 34-year-old marketing expert George Gallup founds American Institute of Public Opinion, forerunner of the Gallup Organization.
1936 Literary Digest wrongly predicts Alf Landon will defeat FDR. LD surveyed telephone and car owners, who skew GOP. Gallup uses random sampling to forecast FDR triumph.
1948 By ending surveys too soon, pollsters miss Truman's surge to victory. Headline says it all.
1958 John F. Kennedy hires Lou Harris, first pollster to conduct private polls for any candidate for White House.
Late 1960s CBS statistician Warren Mitofsky perfects random-digit dialing technique, launching era of modern phone-based polling.
1975 Working together, CBS and the New York Times become first news organizations to conduct regular polling.
1980 NBC declares Ronald Reagan winner over Jimmy Carter three hours before California polls close-first time exit polls are used to project winner in presidential race.
1990-1991 Polls showing public support for military action against Iraq following invasion of Kuwait help George H. W. Bush win congressional backing for first Gulf War.
2000 Online polling makes its mark when Harris Interactive bests all other polls by correctly predicting tie in popular vote between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
2008 Polls leading up to New Hampshire Democratic primary give Obama a sizable lead. Clinton wins by two points, some believe with a late surge of support from women.
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