Quick Study: Polls and Politics

Why you can't trust polls (except when you can).

Election '08: Exclusive Interviews, Photo Galleries, Issue Guides and More

Americans use polls to measure everything from the most popular celebrity Halloween costumes (Brangelina, 2007) to, um, our distrust of polls (68 percent of us don't believe the typical poll accurately reflects public opinion). But in an election year, polls and politics are virtually inseparable. Twenty years ago, only a handful of polls tracked presidential races, releasing new results every few weeks; today there are dozens of polls tracking the race on national and state levels.

Polling is one reason running for president is so expensive. This year, presidential candidates had already spent $28.5 million on polling and research by the end of June. What does all this money accomplish? Candidates' polls reflect trends and help them plan campaigns and raise money; media and independent polls drive coverage. Do polls shape voter behavior? Politicians and journalists think so-but how? By drawing voters to likely victors, or by rallying supporters of the underdog? By persuading voters to stay home when they think their choice is a sure winner-or a stone-cold loser? Not even pollsters know.

How can a survey of 1,000 adults accurately represent the views of 230 million? The answer is probability theory. Using a random sample, pollsters can capture a picture of the population as a whole. And the method works. Despite the closeness of the 2004 election, the average of the final major polls fell within about one percentage point of the actual outcome.

Still, polls often produce vastly different results. That's partly due to sample size and margin of error-in other words, chance. Don't obsess over one poll; watch for trends.

• Election '08
• Government

• Election '08: Exclusive Interviews, Photo Galleries, Issue Guides and More
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• In Their Own Words
• To gauge how today's youth will shape our upcoming election, Reader's Digest commissioned a poll that posed a broad range of questions about the political and personal views of young adults between the ages of 19 and 29.
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• Quick Study: Voting Machines
• Do voting machines work as well as they should?
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Our nephew was getting married to a doctor's daughter. At the wedding reception, the father of the bride stood to read his toast, which he had scribbled on a piece of scrap paper. Several times during his speech, he halted, overcome with what I assumed was a moment of deep emotion. But after a particularly long pause, he explained, "I'm sorry. I can't seem to make out what I've written down." Looking out into the audience, he asked, "Is there a pharmacist in the house?"

-- Tony Belmonte