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Major Threat to America
Most analysts believe Chávez can't afford to take this step in the short term because Venezuela sells over 50 percent of its oil to the United States. But Chávez is trying to shake that dependency by planning a pipeline to the Pacific coast and increasing sales to China and India.Meanwhile, soaring gas prices have fattened Venezuela's coffers, and Chávez is using this wealth to make friends with America's enemies. In a deal with Castro, Chávez has arranged for Cuba to get some 90,000 discounted barrels of oil a day in exchange for as many as 20,000 Cuban health workers. With guidance from Castro's intelligence service, Chávez last year promoted the successful presidential candidacies of Sandinista Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and Evo Morales in Bolivia, both of whom are Socialists often hostile to U.S. interests. Elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean, he spreads discounted oil and cash around to assist his bid to break the continent free from American influence.
"We will never know the full extent of his influence because he's got bagmen who are able to deliver vast sums of money to people he thinks are potential allies," says Roger Noriega.
Chávez has courted Syria's leader, Bashar al-Assad, and openly praises Hamas -- the Syrian-backed Islamist group that has engaged in terror strikes against Israel. The Anti-Defamation League sees growing anti-Semitism in Venezuelan society, promoted by inflammatory rhetoric from Chávez. During Israel's recent war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Chávez charged the Israelis with "committing genocide" and said they "criticize Hitler but have done something far worse."
Chávez has also been cultivating a relationship with the regime of North Korea's Communist dictator, Kim Jong-il. In 2005, a North Korean military delegation reportedly met with officials in Caracas to discuss selling intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Venezuela. Its Nodong 1 model would be capable of hitting Puerto Rico.
Most worrisome to American officials is the deepening relationship between Chávez and Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Iranian factories are popping up in Venezuela, and there is now a direct flight between Teheran and Caracas. On a state visit to Teheran last year, Chávez declared his support for the Iranian nuclear program and said Venezuela would stand by Iran anytime and under any condition. Ahmadinejad has gone to Caracas twice in the last year and a half, and even received from Chávez the Libertador Medal, the highest honor bestowed by Venezuela on visiting dignitaries. Chávez has also publicly praised Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terror organization with a global reach.
Keeping Chávez in check will be no easy matter. The United States would like to rally opposition to Chávez in the region, but his populism has widespread appeal. A greater possibility is that Chávez will undermine his legitimacy as a democratically elected leader by seizing more and more power.
The United States does have one strong lever: Over time, it could shrink Chávez's petroleum revenues by ending America's dependence on Venezuelan oil. This would be especially devastating for Chávez, since he relies on vast oil profits to pay for his popular social programs and investments. Disappoint the masses, and he could be in trouble.
For now, though, Chávez is firmly in charge -- and that portends plenty of trouble. "For Chávez, Latin America is too small a region," says Michael Shifter of Inter-American Dialogue. "He needs a bigger stage, and he wants to be a global player. He's going to be a major threat to America."
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