Yes, some weather lore sounds like an old wives’ tale, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true!
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“Ring around the moon, storm coming soon”
According to this old wives’ tale about the weather, if you see a ring or halo around the moon or the sun, bad weather is right around the corner. True or false? The answer is a little bit of both.
Halos are formed by the light from the sun or the moon as it refracts off of ice crystals in cirrus clouds (those are the wispy ones) in the upper part of the atmosphere. And water vapor does increase ahead of storms, which can be a sign that precipitation is on its way, according to Cornell University’s Northeast Regional Climate Center.
“When there’s a large storm approaching, it’s common for cirrus clouds to be some of the first parts of the storm to arrive, well before any precipitation starts to fall,” says Lada. “This means that there is usually a time before the storm when you can spot a halo in the sky around the sun or the moon, but it’s not always the case with every single storm.”
Lada also points out that cirrus clouds can appear in the sky even when there’s no large storm on the horizon. “So if you do see a halo around the moon,” he says, “it’s not a guarantee that a storm is about to hit.”
Verdict: Fact (mostly)
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“Mackerel sky, mackerel sky—never long wet and never long dry”
This piece of weather folklore originated with sailors who predicted much of the weather by observing the direction of the winds and by looking skyward. When they noticed a “mackerel sky,” they were referring to the rows of high-up rippled cirrocumulus or altocumulus clouds that look like fish scales—hence, the mackerel reference. Seeing these types of clouds indicated to the sailors that a storm might be on the horizon.
These mariners weren’t wrong. According to The Weather Channel, when you see a mackerel sky, it does indicate the weather is going to change. You can typically expect the clouds to start thickening with moisture within about 12 hours. As the clouds thicken, they’ll become more low-lying and bear rain.
Verdict: Fact
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“Rainbow in the morning gives you fair warning”
This saying refers to the notion that if you see a rainbow in the a.m., a rain shower will follow. There is indeed some meteorological truth behind this, says Costa.
A rainbow forms when sunlight refracts, reflects and disperses through raindrops, so you need both rain and sunlight for it to appear. “In the morning, the sun is in the east. If you see a rainbow then, it means rain showers are to your west,” she explains. “In the mid-latitudes (the zone between the tropical region and polar region), weather systems typically move from west to east, so those showers could be moving toward your location—which is why the lore suggests a rainbow in the morning may signal incoming rain.”
Conversely, says Costa, a rainbow seen in the late afternoon or evening would appear in the east, meaning the rain has already passed (to your east) and fairer weather is likely ahead.
Verdict: Fact (mostly)
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“When leaves fall early, fall and winter will be mild; when leaves fall late, winter will be severe”
It would be great to be able to forecast the winter weather simply by looking at the state of autumn leaves. But sadly, there’s no correlation between when they fall and the severity of the upcoming winter, say our experts.
That said, Kines notes that leaves will fall sooner with the early arrival of windy, cold or even exceptionally dry weather. And, he adds, “if it’s a warm autumn, the leaves will fall later; even light wind will keep the leaves on longer.” So that’s likely where the kernel of that myth came from.
Similar weather lore claims that the brighter the color of the leaves, the colder and snowier the winter will be. But like the timing of when they fall, the hue of the leaves has no correlation to the winter temps.
Verdict: Fiction
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“A year of snow, crops will grow”
You may not think snow would be beneficial for plants or crops, but spoiler alert—it is! Not only can snow serve as a blanket to protect new growth from wind and extreme temperatures, it can also help keep plants and soil hydrated when it melts. After all, it is made up of water!
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, a several-inch layer of snow contains more air than ice, and air keeps the plants beneath it insulated. The pockets of trapped air hold in heat, and when the snow is deep enough, it can prevent the soil from freezing and damaging a plant’s roots, according to the Brooklyn Botanic Garden.
Verdict: Fact
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“The stripe on the back of a woolly caterpillar indicates the severity of the upcoming winter”
Woolly bear caterpillars, sometimes called woolly worms, are fuzzy creatures with a lot of short, stiff hair. They typically have black stripes on their top and bottom, and are brown- or rust-colored in the middle. As the legend goes, the length of the black bands around this kind of caterpillar will predict the type of weather coming our way. In particular, the longer the black stripes, the colder, snowier and harsher the forecast. On the flip side, if the brown band is larger, we’ll have a milder winter.
According to the National Weather Service, this has been a popular belief since the Colonial days, and it revved up after a scientist at the American Museum of Natural History did a small study in the late 1940s. He counted the brown bands on 15 different woolly caterpillars, and from there, he made a prediction for the winter. The story appeared in the New York Herald Tribune and got picked up by the national press.
Unfortunately, looking at a woolly bear caterpillar’s stripe size isn’t rooted in any fact. Its colorings actually depend on age, species and how long it’s been feeding, according to the National Weather Service.
Verdict: Fiction
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“You can tell the temperature by counting a cricket’s chirps”
Determining how hot or cold it is outside by the number of chirps a cricket makes may sound a little cray-cray, but surprisingly, it’s a pretty accurate way to get a temperature read outdoors! Here’s why: Crickets chirp faster when they’re warm, and they chirp slower when they’re cold. The scientific reason for this? They’re ectotherms (bumblebees and lizards are too), and their body temperature depends on the temperature of the environment they’re in, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The connection between the temperature and a cricket’s chirps isn’t a new phenomenon. There’s even a formula you can use to figure it out, called Dolbear’s Law, a calculation created by American physicist Amos Dolbear in the late 19th century. To use Dolbear’s Law, count the number of a cricket’s chirps in the span of 15 seconds, then add 40, and you’ll have the temperature in Fahrenheit. Cool, huh?
Verdict: Fact
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“Rain comes 90 days after a fog”
The origin of this bit of weather lore isn’t really known, but it could have started back in the 18th century, when farmers created their own weather calendars to help with planting schedules and crop upkeep. But if it happened to rain 90 days after the onset of fog, it was by sheer coincidence. “The saying doesn’t hold up scientifically,” says Costa. “Fog doesn’t trigger or ‘set a clock’ for rain, and there’s no physical mechanism connecting fog to rainfall months later.”
Fog is simply a cloud at ground level that forms when air near the surface cools to its dew point, causing water vapor to condense into tiny, suspended droplets. “Precipitation is produced by larger-scale processes—air rising, cooling, cloud-droplet growth, and storm systems transporting moisture,” Costa explains.
All in all, while it’s a memorable phrase, fog is a local and short-lived phenomenon driven by temperature, humidity and surface conditions. It’s not a reliable signal of future weather.
Verdict: Fiction
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“If birds fly low, expect rain and a blow”
Birds are affected by atmospheric pressure, so when it drops, it makes it harder for them to fly high because the air tends to be heavier. In this instance, birds will fly closer to the ground, and weirdly enough, this can be an indication that bad weather is on the way. Why? Low pressure usually means it will be cloudy, rainy and windy, while high-pressure areas typically create cool, dry air and clear skies.
“An approaching storm is often accompanied by lowering and thickening clouds, and most birds will fly below cloud level for better visibility,” says Kines. “Even though there can be strong winds with the storm at ground level, the wind often increases with altitude. That’s another reason why the birds would be flying low—to escape the strongest winds.”
Verdict: Fact
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“Flies bite more before a rain”
Flies, along with other pesky insects such as mosquitoes, can sense a drop in barometric pressure and an uptick in humidity, both of which usually signal impending rain. The detection of lower air pressure alerts flies that it’s time for to start feeding before the wet weather hits. Who better to feast on than humans?
The National Park Service says the muggy and warmer climate causes humans to sweat and emit more body odors when atmospheric pressure on your body lowers, making you a very attractive—and tasty!—target. In these weather conditions, consider taking cover or using an insect repellent outdoors, since you’ll be more susceptible to bug bites right before it rains compared to any other time.
Verdict: Fact
About the experts
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Why trust us
At Reader’s Digest, we’re committed to producing high-quality content by writers with expertise and experience in their field in consultation with relevant, qualified experts. We rely on reputable primary sources, including government and professional organizations and academic institutions as well as our writers’ personal experiences where appropriate. For this piece on weather lore, Marcy Lovitch tapped her experience as a longtime journalist and fact-checker with 20-plus years of experience researching for national publications including Marie Claire, Good Housekeeping, Family Circle, Glamour, Seventeen, Real Simple, Forbes and InStyle magazines. We verify all facts and data, back them with credible sourcing and revisit them over time to ensure they remain accurate and up to date. Read more about our team, our contributors and our editorial policies.
Sources:
- Milla Nóbrega de Menezes Costa, PhD, meteorologist and assistant professor in meteorology at Florida Institute of Technology; email interview, September 2025
- Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist; email interview, September 2025
- Tom Kines, AccuWeather senior meteorologist; email interview, September 2025
- Cornell University Northeast Regional Climate Center: “Weather Folklore – Facts or Fiction?”
- National Park Service: “Weather Lore Sayings”
- The Weather Channel: “Weather Words: ‘Mackerel Sky'”
- National Maritime Historical Society: “Marine Weather Forecasting”
- KTHV-TV: “Do brighter leaves in the fall mean a colder winter is ahead?”
- National Weather Service: “Woolly Bear Caterpillar – Winter Predictor or Not?”
- Missouri Department of Conservation: “Woolly Bears and Winter”
- Tufts Digital Library: “Concise Encyclopedia of Tufts History: Amos Emerson Dolbear”
- Farmers’ Almanac: “Can Birds Predict ‘Fowl’ Weather?”
- National Geographic: “Barometer”
